Why Are Bonds Surging This Morning?

Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%.  Less than an hour later, yields fell to 4.23 and MBS rose over 3/8ths of a point on a trio of headlines. The first was a detail from a proposed plan to end the war (involving unfreezing Iranian assets in exchange for Uranium). The second was a notification about negotiations in Islamabad this Sunday which trump might personally attend. The third was the biggest market mover and involved Iran's Foreign Minister announcing a reopening of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire. It's unclear how that information interacts with the U.S. blockade, but the market doesn't seem to be asking that question. Despite the sharp gains, today's bond market movement still fits in the scope of the broader downtrend since late March.