March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?

Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk o

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+.  In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potential

Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels

At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years

Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?

Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from t