Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data

There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to

War Protest: Bond Market Edition

War Protest: Bond Market Edition There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty,

Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs

Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news.  But there wasn't any of that sort of news on tap today--just

Bonds Remain On The Run

The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effects that bode ill for the fixed income sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the in