Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role of quarter-end rebalancing trades. Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM Flat overnight with mild selling at 8:20am. 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.383 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 12:30 PM 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.381 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 03:03 PM 10yr up half a bp at 4.373 and MBS down 1 tick (.03).