Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse

by Matthew Graham

Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.9 bps at 4.761 04:01 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.744