More War. More Selling

More War. More Selling Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.6 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.6 prev ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Aug) 71.1 vs 72 f'cast, 71.1 prev USA JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.271M vs 7.3M f'cast, 7.359M prev Market Movement Recap 08:54 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3bps at 4.784 10:17 AM Stronger after 10am data, but still weaker on the day. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.761 12:32 PM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.786 02:11 PM MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.791