Increasing Signs of Bond-Specific Panic

Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences.