No Whammies in CPI Data (And No Bond Market Reaction)
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year. Apparently, it's hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday's highs.
Categories
Recent Posts

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different

Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks

Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility

Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves

UAD 3.6, Compliance AI, Closing Doc Tools; Bill Pulte Ousted; MBS Investor Interview; MISMO and AI

To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend)

Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement

Rates Drop Sharply to One Week Lows

Hedging, HOA Lien Monitoring, Reverse Products; Webcasts; CFPB's Humility Pledge

Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data
GET MORE INFORMATION


