Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that's the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the first 40 minutes post-CPI. It wasn't until newswires cited Trump saying he's in no hurry to end the war that yields began spiking (and stocks began selling). It's also worth noting that yields were already up to 4.44% ahead of CPI and only moved 2bps higher by the close (i.e. not much intraday movement in the grand scheme). Could CPI have been a factor for some traders? Sure, but the majority of post-CPI volume suggests the data was largely taken in stride.
Econ Data / Events
m/m CORE CPI (Apr)
0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev
m/m Headline CPI (Apr)
0.6% vs 0.6% f'cast, 0.9% prev
y/y CORE CPI (Apr)
2.8% vs 2.7% f'cast, 2.6% prev
y/y Headline CPI (Apr)
3.8% vs 3.7% f'cast, 3.3% prev
Market Movement Recap
08:30 AM No major reaction to CPI. 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.438 and MBS are down only 2 ticks (.06).
09:39 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.451
02:03 PM Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.461
Categories
Recent Posts

Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform

New Home Sales Slide to Multi-Year Lows

Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Despite Elevated Rates

Housing Starts Not Nearly as Scary Without Weird Multifamily Nosedive

Credit and Verification, AI Compliance, CRA Sourcing Tools; Housing Bill Stalls; HMDA Data; Inflation Hopes and Rates

Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential

Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains

Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th

Borrower Retention, AI Governance, Jumbo Products; Borrower Recapture Trends; MLO Opportunity Thoughts

Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target
GET MORE INFORMATION


